Statistics ... and online examination

Collated the number of people attempting the DGCA exams from Jan-2007 to Jul-2007. These are not the count of how many passed/failed - it's the count from the list of admit cards.

There's 3 parts:
a) CPLG (Standard CPL papers)
b) CPLCG (CPL Conversion papers)
c) ATPLG (Standard ATPL papers)

I deliberately excluded helicopters and general/technical papers.

It's very interesting to see the drastic change in numbers for CPL and
CPL-Composite. As usual, NAV looks like a tough subject, definitely several repeaters for NAV.

Food for thought. If the July numbers become the de-facto trend, then there are approximately 1000 people writing various papers, that's approximately 2500 papers every 3 months. Considering 20 working days per month, that's 125 papers per day. If the exams are held online (computer based), and available for 8 hours per day, and assuming an approximate average of 2 hours per paper, that would evaluate to 4 papers per computer per day, and 80 papers per month per computer. To allow for 2500 papers, approximately 32 computers would be required.

Additionally, if the charge for attempting each paper is Rs.500, every computer would gross a revenue of Rs.40,000/-. Therefore, if computers were used for online examination, and investments were made wisely, each computer would pay for itself within the first month, and the cost of additional infrastructure and examination venue, initial setup, etc would be recovered in at most the first six months.

Hey!
Great to see u back pal!
Welcome on board!

Quote :

Additionally, if the charge for attempting each paper is Rs.500, every computer would gross a revenue of Rs.40,000/-. Therefore, if computers were used for online examination, and investments were made wisely, each computer would pay for itself within the first month, and the cost of additional infrastructure and examination venue, initial setup, etc would be recovered in at most the first six months.

Hope the DGCA people are reading this!

Nice statistics there!
Good post!

Blue SKies!

I spent only 10 minutes getting this data from the last allotment of computer numbers, and I suddenly feel old!

I extracted the DoB from the list, plugged that into excel, and made some interpretations. There's the number of alloted computer numbers and age groups.

Btw, I totally dislike the fact that DGCA must publish all this personal data online.

Count _________ 576
Age 17-20 ______ 226
Age 20-25 ______ 179
Age 26-30 _______ 51
Age 31-35 _______ 37
Age 36-40 _______ 48
Age 41 or more ___ 42

Minimum Age _____ 17
Maximum Age _____ 61
Average Age _____ 25
Median Age ______ 21

Quote :

I suddenly feel old!

Mayur..You only feel old....I am History

I managed to make a single graph of the JAN 2008 exam participation from the DGCA allotment numbers. Only the CPL and ATPL numbers.

Compare the numbers to the 2007 numbers. Last year we saw a steady but drastic decrease in the CPL participation - from 1000 in Jan 2007 to 300 in Jul 2007. And there was increasing CPL Composite participation, from about 50 in Jan 2007 to 150 in Jul 2007. The first papers this year, Jan 2008, shows a small increase in the CPL participation, to about 480. And a noticable increase in the CPL Composite numbers - now about 300.

So the CPL numbers are now about 300 to 500 each quarter, and the CPL Composite numbers between 150 and 400. I guess the next two or three quarters will see a similar trend, maybe a steady or even an increasing participation in the CPL Composite.

Look at the Oct-2007 results, I can see more red in the graph than green. From this, I can say that a substantial number (30% to 60%) of Jan-2008 exams participants are resist. Wonder how many "fresh" participants.

I am guessing that the number of people who are now writing the exams for the first time has reduced drastically compared to last year - fallout of the 50hr or PPL rule for taking the CPL written.

The results for Jan 2008.

This is an age-wise break-up of the number of computer numbers allotted in april 2008.

Listening to all the slowdown and number of "cadets who have finished their training but are doing clerical work now" ... I just hope the under-21 age group have something to fall back on.

- Excluding CHPL, PPL, Spec and Perf
- ATPCG and ATPLG is combined into ATPL

ATPL			Remarks
Subject	Pass	Fail
Navigation	44	277
Regulations	3	20
Meteorology	26	257
Radio Aids	44	431
CPLCG
Subject	Pass	Fail
Nav Composite	217	336	(of the 217 passed, 57 scored exactly 70)
Regulations	29	419	YES - I CHECKED THIS TWICE
CPLG
Subject	Pass	Fail
Navigation	241	716	(of the 241 passed, 59 scored exactly 70)
Regulations	67	897	(of the 67 passed, 50 scored exactly 70)
Meteorology	103	675	(of the 103 passed, 47 scored exactly 70)
Tech General	167	225	(of the 167 passed, 44 scored exactly 70)

Some fancy graphs
too!

October 2008 pilot exams candidate count from the last published
admit list:

ATPL	Candidates
Meteorology	511
Navigation	581
Radio Aids	699
Regulation	44
Tech General	22
CPLCG	Candidates
Nav Composite	671
Regulation	686
CPLG	Candidates
Meteorology	1006
Navigation	1060
Regulation	1325
Tech General	333

Looks like a bad season.
PASS FAIL
CPLCG COMP 188 519 (Avg 72, Median 70, 3 got >= 80)
CPLCG REG 515 219 (Avg 76, Median 74, 142 got >= 80)
CPLG MET 236 687 (Avg 74, Median 72, 35 got >= 80)
CPLG NAV 155 762 (Avg 72, Median 70, 7 got >= 80)
CPLG REG 667 544 (Avg 75, Median 74, 129 got >= 80)